Urban development has become an increasingly more important issue in the last few decades, since the human population grew at an unprecedented rate after the 1960s as shown in Figure 1. 

Figure 1. Population v Time (Younger, 2024)

At the beginning of the Industrial Age in the late 18th century the world population was approaching 1 billion. A century later it was 2 billion, which was a doubling in one century, much faster than in the many centuries preceding. Come the 20th century, despite two world wars with millions of people dead, the population stood at 2.45 billion in 1946, further increased to just over 3 billion by the early 1960s and now stands at approaching 8.6 billion. An increase of 5.6 billion in some 64 years. Had the rate of growth been the same as from 1945 to 1960, the population today would be closer to 5.3 billion. The significant acceleration in growth was not realised until some two-three decades ago but was finally acknowledged in 2015 at the key climate change meeting of the UN in Paris (IPCC, 2014).

The population is forecast to reach approximately 10.2 billion by 2050, and there were several important outcomes emanating from this population expansion, which our nations’ leaders were slow to appreciate. One of the outcomes concerned urban development, at a time when the distribution of peoples across the world was dramatically changing. There were many reasons for this, beyond the scope of this article, but involved medical advances, more widespread and better healthcare, improvements in agriculture leading to better food, etc., in the second part of the 20th century.

Indonesia, today the 4th most populous country, is a case in point. In 1970, the country had a population of 100 million approximately with an average longevity of 40 years. In just 30 years this had been transformed to a population of 200 million with an average longevity of 70 years. The populations of India and China, the two largest countries, had each doubled in size approximately in the last 40 years of the century, making Asia the most populous continent in the world.

The spectacular rate of growth – as the recent text of Annelie Marchsteiner announcing the GAFG forthcoming event indicated – has meant falling behind in the attendant needs of the environment and of the requirements of shelter for the expanding populace. Just in the past decade, in the UK for instance, some of the leading politicians have realised that vital attention had to be paid to providing funds for urban developments, both for existing settlements and for new. In addition, there is a greater need for energy and water, supply and sanitation, and attention to pollution in all its manifestations.

Energy and water are essential for human existence, and dealing with the requirements of existing urban infrastructure must also be prioritised. In addition, future urban developments should also bring up potentially new ideas and materials.

The Urban Community

Cities are the oldest form of governance that have been devised by mankind with early forms going back 4000 to 5000 years, and where many of its citizens worked, relaxed and raised families. In particular, the urban communities have expanded significantly in the past century and a half, and no more so than in the last 60 years. From today’s population of 8.6 billion and still growing some 7.2 billion live in or beside cities and are dependent on them, and this is expected to expand to 9 billion out of 10.5 billion by mid-century.

There is a backlog of a wide range of buildings that essentially comprise an urban environment. However, the urban area of the globe makes up only about 1.5% of the total land area of the planet, the rest of the land area, 30%, being made up of mountains, hills, forested areas, and vast spaces of grassland and land for growing crops. The remaining 70% of the planet is salt water, i.e. the oceans.

Developing an Urban Environment

Table 1 (Younger & Canny, 2021) shows a comprehensive list of issues that will have to be addressed in a holistic manner in order to build a new town or city, each being important to provide a successful outcome. The list can be used to select what is needed for many of the unfinished developments that exist from the work done over the past few decades.

Table 1. Masterplan to provide a successful new urban development

Provide sound and expensive fiscal arrangements for both capital works and efficiently run maintenance programmes

Ensure there is adequate (30%) sustainable green and garden space for community relaxation and enjoyment

Design and construct utility efficient domestic and commercial buildings; electricity, water and waste services, with reuse

In viewing energy requirements, focus on maximising use of renewable energy options

Consider new construction materials and techniques for a mix of both high- and low-rise structures – and reusability

Provide modern hospital, medical and nursing services, with supporting inputs to take account of medical advances for sustainable healthier living

Establish up-to-date education, training and supporting research facilities, noting such advances in the new cyber age (such as AI)

Provide training for service industries, including tourism, both cultural and non-cultural
Develop comprehensive sports and leisure facilities

Design for changing transport modes, with increasing use of non-fossil propulsion – EVs, motorcycles, trucks, both driven and driverless, rail links, and allow for pedestrian and bicycle pathways

Consider airport links and future expansion, and increasing use of helicopter services
Where appropriate, establish supporting research facilities for food and agriculture and fisheries.

While this comprehensive list would apply to a greenfield situation, for extensions to existing urban settings the Masterplan can also be used, taking out the items that have already been addressed previously.

Naturally, it is simpler planning construction where the existing ground level is relatively flat, for instance where the elevation is closer to sea level, where many, if not most, urban centres across the world can be found.  These can take time to clear all objections, the building of the new or extension to the development can proceed according to the plan.

Looking to the rest of the century

There remains much to be done in Asia, but in the coming decades increasing attention must be given to Africa where the population is expected to increase by over 2.5 billion in approximately 70 years. Africa will comprise some 40% of total world population, and Asia a somewhat similar number. This means that the rest of the world – Europe, North and South America and Australia plus the Pacific Islands – at about 20% is more thinly populated.

However, the last period of 60 years has seen the rise of the mega-city, established urban environments of greater than 10 million people, locations that have simply expanded at pace. There are centuries old places such as Delhi and Calcutta (expanding from 4.5 million in 2011 to 15.8 million today) as well as new locations such as Bangkok, Shanghai, and Jakarta, and several more, usually with locations close to the sea and ready access for trading of bulk goods across oceans. It is noted that Indonesia has an ideal geographical shape for this, being made up of many islands and thus the opportunity of building several coastal cities. It gave one enterprising group in Jakarta to develop a plan called the 100 cities programme.

Sub-Saharan Development

There are 49 countries, either totally or partially, located in sub-Saharan Africa including Nigeria which will become the third largest in the world before the end of the century, South Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, etc, and three offshore nations, Seychelles, Mauritius and Cabo Verde. Another 5, which includes Egypt, Libya Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco north of the Sahara Desert as well the desert itself, makes the continent the second largest after Asia.

It is considered that most efforts will be on the sub-Saharan region for the remainder of the century. It is where most outside help will be needed since that is where the fastest population growth is expected to occur and much of Africa is relatively underdeveloped since the end of colonialism, during which time the emphasis was on extraction of resources and little time on developing the capability of the indigenous population.

It is assumed that initially some of the community developments, towns and cities, will form the basis of building out and expanding using today’s ideas, perhaps having a masterplan to use, as shown in Table 1. One idea, that may be worth expanding is that of twinning. Here a developed country, for instance from Europe, has a treaty agreement with one African nation whereby the European country undertakes the training of personnel in the various governance and other appropriate development tasks that must be done to enable the African nation to prosper, perhaps with UN guidance. In a small way, this has been done on an environmental programme using university staff.

Concluding Remarks

In the past 60 years, the movement of people, particularly from the global south to the north, has reached significant proportions. Just in the past decade this immigration has caused some strife in certain countries, the level depending on the government of the receiving country. There must be sympathy for the people seeking a better life, particularly where they have been fleeing abject poverty or a country in turmoil/war. At the same time, there is a ‘headache’ for the receiving country, particularly when there is a shortage of adequate accommodation. The problem is worsened when the general populace does not understand the complex issue and it becomes one of a political nature. No end in sight! Therefore, actions like those of the Global Academy for Future Governance (GAFG), and its great thinkers and practitioners such as prof. Ian Banerjee and Edna dos Santos —which connect peoples, ideas, and non-traditional centres of excellence—matter greatly for the coming years.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that long-term forecasts of sustainable development nowadays are generally deemed unreliable, as most of the developments that are worthy of note take place in just a very few years (Younger & Cook, 2026).

References

IPCC (2014) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014.

Kirwan, C. G. & Zhiyong, F. (2024) Smart Cities and Artificial Intelligence, Elsevier Amsterdam.

UN (2018) 68% of the World Population Projected to Live in Urban Areas by 2050.

UN News (2022) Climate Change: No Credible Pathway to Limit, UNEP Warns United Nations, New York.

Younger, J. S. (2007) Sustainable Development. Guest lecture to Glasgow University Sustainable Development Network.

Younger, J. S. & Canny, A. (2021) Ayo Indonesia – taking Indonesia onward. Published by Straits Times, Singapore.

Younger, J. S., Parry, D.E. & Meigh, J.D. (2022) Preparing for the Future: the Impact of Climate Change on the Civil Engineering Profession. Proc. Civil Engineering 175(2): 1-8.

Younger, J. S. & Cook, J. R. (2026) -eds. Sustainable Development Challenges; an assessment in civil engineering. Published by Taylor & Francis under CRC Press.

(Author Dr J Scott Younger OBE is a professional civil engineer, and spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published with the Forbes Indonesia, Globe Asia. Served on British & European Chamber boards and Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber, for 17 years. His expertise is Infrastructure and Sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. Former International Chancellor of the President University, he obtains different academic and consultancy functions in his native Scotland. Dr. Younger is a Deputy DG with the Global Academy for Future Governance since its start mid 2025. )